Only 28.6% Approved After an NIW RFE?
An NIW request for evidence (RFE) deserves attention. In one community dataset summarized by the report, 57 of 199 decided NIW cases that received an RFE were approved. That is 28.6%. It describes a selected group of completed cases, rather than every applicant who receives an RFE.
Two trackers, very different results
The report combines 1,190 NIW Stats cases and 326 VisaStats cases, removing 37 matched duplicates to reach 1,479 unique NIW records. Their approval shares remain separate: 57.8% for NIW Stats and 88.8% for VisaStats. After an RFE, VisaStats reports 71.8%, far above NIW Stats. Different applicant populations, reporting incentives and filing periods may contribute to the gap.
Why the denominator matters
NIW Stats also reports that 83.3% of 743 cases with a first action received an RFE. Those 743 cases are a different denominator from the 199 completed RFE cases. In the rounded comparison chart, approval shares are about 98% without an RFE and 29% with an RFE or NOID. The data do not establish that an RFE causes denial; cases attracting questions may already have more substantial weaknesses.
What to take away
Prepare for the possibility of additional evidence and additional time. Do not interpret 28.6% as your personal odds, or the community sample as an official USCIS rate. Approval shares exclude pending cases. The report reproduces a 55.3% official NIW share for FY2026 Q3, but that quarterly population is different from the tracker samples.
Sources and methodology
Based on the supplied report, NIW and EB-1A Case Data Analysis (Mobile Edition), pages 1-3 and 8. Snapshot through October 23, 2026. Figures are English redraws of the report, not a fresh scrape or independent audit of the underlying cases.
NIW Stats tracker | VisaStats tracker
The report credits Manifest Law for its compilation of USCIS quarterly data. Official data entry point: USCIS Immigration and Citizenship Data. The official figures shown here are reproduced from the supplied report.
